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Could Liverpool’s new “Moneyball” strategy work?

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The appointment of Damien Comolli as Director of Football Strategy at Liverpool came out of the blue for most Reds fans on Wednesday, but if we look at both Comolli’s connections to Henry, and to Arsenal (a club the American greatly admires), it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. One of the books that may well become essential reading for any Liverpool fan is a book called “Moneyball.” Written by Michael Lewis, it tells the story of the Oakland Athletic’s baseball team under General Manager Billy Beane. A team with very little money, Beane utilised statistical analysis to recruit players on the cheap and to inculcate a new playing philosophy completely different to the traditional techniques of winning baseball games. Recruiting good players on the cheap was achieved by assessing what was seen in Baseball at the time as less important characteristics. Beane based judgements on players purely on categories deemed statistically important (such as Ultimate Zone Rating and On Base Percentage) and he acquired highly undervalued players as a result. Such innovations in recruitment led to Oakland overachieving every year with very little financial backing.

So what does this all have to do with Damien Comolli? The interesting fact is that Comolli has worked with Billy Beane and the two have struck up quite a close friendship. John W Henry was a fan of Beane’s even before the book “Moneyball” was released in 2003, and in 2002 he approached Beane to become the General Manager of the Boston Red Sox. Beane initially accepted the role but eventually did not take up the position; a role which was later taken up by Theo Epstein, a 28 year old Yale graduate who had no experience in Baseball at all. Epstein clearly was passionate about the technique used by Beane, which is called sabermetrics, and it has worked its magic by achieving two World Series titles.

Incidentally, Billy Beane was here in London at the start of October, sitting on a panel alongside Arsene Wenger at the Leaders in Performance conference at Stamford Bridge. At the conference he told the Independent:

“You would have a hard time finding any major sport in the world which is not using metrics in some way. Performances in baseball are much more easily measured than in soccer but each sport has a metric which is relevant, it is identifying it. Basketball is much more similar to soccer and many NBA teams are using metrics.”

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3 comments

  • JJ says:

    good article

  • JJ says:

    but while I do think we need a sustainable financial model I do think we need 1 splash of around £50m to challenge over the next 3-5years while we develop some top youths and we need a winger or two, a holding midfielder, a striker, a left back and maybe a centre half , in January I would like to see Poulsen,Babel and Eccleston be replaced by Lassana Diarra, Ashley Young and Oscar Cordozo these are the first priorities to try get back in the Champions League then we can worry about a left back and other problems in the summer

  • Jack says:

    Just seen the BBC interview with John Henry. A few points I gathered.

    1) Comes across as a no-nonsense, authoritative figure. Has class which the previous owners surely lacked. You can imagine players and managers alike would respect him.

    2) Definately agree that he sees the Arsenal model as the one to replicate. It will make us sustainable as a club and with the UEFA rules coming into effect will level the playing field abit more.

    However:

    3) When asked about big money transfers he kept side-stepping the issue. Made excuses about age of players and would not answer on the hypothetical scenario of a world class talent who was young. So it seems LFC will not be buying ANY £30 million player and you can forget the £50 million bracket.

    4) Quite hazy on the Hodgson issue. Kept saying he did not know enough to assess his talents. This I am sure will make quite a few fans happy unsurprisingly.

    5) Stadium issue. Again was hazy and claimed it would probably take 2 years for anything to happen regardless or refurbishment or constructing of a whole new one in Stanley Park.

    6)Issue regarding future debt being piled onto the club was the most worrying. Just like with some of the earlier issues he kept dodging the question. Said that he did not know enough at this stage to make a definitive answer. Well the people he took over from were pressured to leave because of this very problem. It was THE most significant problem which could have seen us go under. His consortium has spent over £200 million, which is significant in any ones books, and he replied that he did not know enough to say whether debt from a possible new stadium will be put onto the club or the stadium itself. That seems either naieve or not exactly true.

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