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Liverpool Transfer Rumours: What and Who to Trust

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Taking a break from the site over the weekend, I came back this morning to see Liverpool linked with a whole host of new players. The big problem for most Reds fans are which sources to trust, if any at all. Some websites just make up stories without any evidence to back up their claims, some sites get scoops by quoting unnamed “inside sources” whose information is rarely accurate, while others (such as Live4Liverpool.com) rehash the only slightly more reputable stories in the daily newspapers. In the last year or so I have been using a site called Football Transfer League to track transfer stories and their reliability. Each paper has a percentage regarding their accuracy for transfer stories. Listed below are the player’s linked, along with the papers who have run stories on them:

Jordan Henderson (Daily Telegraph, The Independent and Daily Mirror, Daily Star, Daily Mail) – Nearly every daily newspaper has run a story on the interest being shown by Liverpool in the Sunderland midfielder, but there is a marked difference between the broadsheets and the tabloids about the stage at which the deal is at. The Telegraph and The Independent believe only a informal enquiry has been made while the Mirror has even stated that there has been a second bid of £18.5m after the first £13m offer was rejected.

So who’s more likely to be accurate with their reporting? Unsurprising it is the broadsheets with Telegraph having a 38.7% accuracy rating while the Independent has a 38.5% accuracy. The Daily Mirror however has an abysmal 15.4% while the Daily Star has a slightly more reliable 23%.

Lee Cattermole (Daily Telegraph) – Another player linked with the Reds is the Sunderland captain. Again, the Telegraph has stated that the Reds have only made an informal enquiry but the likelihood of a bid is certainly a lot higher than other rumours on this list.

Charles N’Zogbia (Daily Mirror) – The Reds being linked with the Wigan winger seems to crop up every week, and with the Mirror’s 15.4% rating, it can generally be assumed that this is just another story to fill column inches without a reliable source perhaps being used.

Bojan Krkic (Daily Mail) – The Barcelona forward was linked with the Reds in the Mail today, along with team mate Jeffren Suarez. The Mail maybe above the Mirror in regards to reliability, but it rates even below the Daily Star with a 20% likelihood that the move will come to fruition. Don’t expect a move for the Spanish starlet to the Reds anytime soon.

Connor Wickham (The Independent) – The paper reported that the Reds have had a £8m rejected for the player. It is expected that will improve their bid up to £10m and with a 38.5% accuracy, this story may well have substance.

Aly Cissokho (The People) – The People is the least reliable out of all the national newspapers with a paltry 14.1% of their transfer stories being correct. Despite a good player, our interest in the French international would seem to be either totally secret or totally inaccurate.

Scot Dann (Daily Star) – The report about the Birmingham star has a 1 in 4 chance of being correct. You decide.

In regards to other newspapers, it is unsurprising to read that, according to the Football Transfer League, the Guardian (at 40.4%) is the most reliable while the Daily Express (at 34.4%) is quite a bit more reliable than The Times (25.3%) when reporting transfer rumours. So the long and short of it is, even the most reliable are wrong 60% of the time. As Kenny says, wait until the club says something would be my advice to you.

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7 comments

  • Voland says:

    Where’s the fun in that David? Thanks for the article though – illuminating to see the percentages.

  • Bill says:

    Couldn’t agree more, I keep posting on all the LFC supporters websites your exact words. When there is anything to announce KK will announce it, in the true and reasserted tradition of Liverpool Football Club.

  • daboy says:

    I have read Football transfer league and have noticed that myself but regardless there is always a surprise or two.

  • magnumopus says:

    Teams must look at many players because they don’t know which teams will sell, which players want to move, will they cost us more than we want to pay. So, we look at lots of players until something concrete begins to happen and then we have to decide who we will finally bring in or sell for that matter. Some times media hear we are looking at players and that is because we are but it doesn’t mean we will buy but perhaps we are looking at alternatives if the ones we really want fail to happen. So, there is lots going on during the silly season, no!

  • Tobyg says:

    Cut him Henderson, put some clarret on his face.

  • man says:

    16 million for henderson
    10 million for wickham
    14 million for jones

    40 million for 2nd grade player and england future.
    not bad for investment.

    …………….gulasci………………..
    flanagan…..jones…..wilson……robinson
    .henderson…jonjo….spearing…..sterling
    ………….wichham…susso……………

    2015 team setting….

    now.. we must say welcome to >>

    1. aguero >> 33 million
    2. duszcak >> 18 million
    3. Downing >> 18 million
    4. Enrique >> 10 million

    say goodbye to >>

    Ngog >> 2 million
    Poulsen >> 4 million
    Kocesky >> 3 million
    Insua >> 3 million
    Aqua >> 10 million
    Cole >> 3 million
    Agger >> 10 million

    maybe xabi will return with 13 million

    who cares???

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