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Do you subscribe to John Henry’s and Liverpool’s plan?

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Liverpool owner John W Henry commented on twitter about the club’s transfer strategy:

“Speculation on players shouldn’t include those of a certain age. We are not going to be successful by merely filling short-term needs at LFC. Everything in sports is overpriced now – especially the cost of winning. But you make your choices based on a plan. Some things happen early and some late. The important thing is that things happen. Sometimes what you avoid is important.”

Comments about the club not buying players of a “certain age” is unsurprising, considering it was apparent from very early on that FSG subscribed to the “Moneyball” approach. The appointment of Damien Comolli very shortly after the takeover of the club was all but confirmation of this strategy.

This rumoured strategy was further reinforced by the signing of 20 year old Jordan Henderson and the genuine interest in 19 year old Phil Jones and 18 year old Connor Wickham. Questions remain however over how effective the approach will be.

As Henry mentions in his twitter messages, everything in football and in sports in general are “overpriced now,” and he no doubt was referring to some of the transfers fees being paid by Liverpool as well as other clubs. What Moneyball effectively boils down though in its most basic conception is the aim to get “value for money.” Younger players maybe overpriced but their value in the future will only go up while those in the latter stages of their careers will only depreciate in value. It makes financial sense to invest in younger players.

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35 comments

  • Lee says:

    I am in agreement that we don’t want quick fixes and we certainly don’t want old players like Bridge or O’Shea who were linked.

    We also don’t need shed loads of young talent at the expense of more experienced individuals. We also need to get a frickin move on because we are always so slow in the transfer market and it’s always so underwhelming.

    Guarantee we will faff around around of the odd million for Adam only to blow our wad in a mad panic on transfer deadline day.

    Players like Young, Nasri, Clichy and Aguero are/were available and we don’t appear to be doing anything to snare them.

    We don’t have CL to offer so we need to offer that little bit more in wages to entice them. Waiting around to sign only those players that want to come to Liverpool is all well and good but we could be waiting for frickin ages.

    We need quality to succeed and we need to succeed to bring in more quality.

    The Americans need to realise that and show that mean business and do it frickin quickly before it’s too late.

    • Towson Tom says:

      Its fair to say we are looking for a top four finish this comming season and to be honest I dont think we NEED to buy any players, the right additions at the right price would be nice E.g. a left back and a winger but its not that desperate, we already have a squad capable of making the top four and I for one would sooner wait another year, by then KK would know the dead wood to be rid of to make way for more quality. We can only play eleven at a time and to bring in the likes of Adam, Downing and clichy would leave little hope for our up and comming youngsters.

      • Lee says:

        On our day we could be brilliant last season but we need more quality and more variation to go the whole hog and get 4th.

        Unfortunately, people are getting too carried away with last season’s form and think 4th spot will be easy. Well in the last few weeks we have already fallen further behind United, Chelsea and Man City and Spurs have a bigger squad and are looking to buy also.

        If the youngsters are good enough then they will play but I’d much rather sign an accomplished player and breed the youngster in slowly.

        4 or 5 players we need….2 wingers, 1 striker, a left back and a centre back

        • Towson Tom says:

          The problem as I see it is this, If we have two wingers then we would be playing 2.3.5, I have’nt seen that formation since the days of Morrisey and Acourt, these days playing 4.3.3. or 4.4.2 you need to be looking at wingbacks with the engine to get forward and still carry out their defensive duties. We already have a right back in Johnson who is actually better on the left and Martin Kelly was doing o.k on the right. As regards a striker show me the club that would say no to another one. I suppose what I am trying to say is to bring in so many new faces and expect them to gell is a big ask even for KK, how many times in the past have we bought one player only for him to flop? for me a couple every window, well researched and at the right price seems good to me.

  • Rupurt says:

    Yes because they are proven winners and not internet commandos who think they know better.

  • Dan says:

    One thing you have to remember is that they are business men, they are in it to make money, when someone says extra mill of a half does not matter I am sure it would if it came out of your pocket. I love LFC but times have changed this is a big money business you can lose big or make big. I don’t blame them for taking their time and holding out for good value. It’s better that we have a stable club then see it go down the tubes into bankruptcy, which we were not far from.

  • DerekW says:

    It it wrong and amatuerish to set arbitary age limits in any organisation. It difficult for those responsible to take decisions, for example were a player is ‘too old’ but has the required ability and the price is right. The manager must have discretion to break the rules if it is in the interests of the Club

    • Dan says:

      Well I don’t think he is saying that as he also said proven EPL players. And what is old +25 +28. People say 26 is prime for any footballer so I think there will be a mix of 18 to 26. But no one knows what they are really thinking and who they are going to get we have to wait and see and pray we at least get into the CL next year. Then and only then can we judge them all

    • pete says:

      The problem is the new owners talked about a big summer just like Hicks did a year earlier and right now we are almost were we were in terms of bringing in players, Henderson deal aside. The players, young ones at that we have been linked with have gone elsewhere with Wickam reluctant to be come in because he was not going to be a first team player. Also when a youngster looks at the club and knows young locals will be preferred ahead of him, who would want to come. The likes of Pacheco seem to have fallen of the radar and I am sure his compatriot Suso may take the same route.
      Also the media blitz by liverpool seniour management, Henry taking to twitter and Ayre on Sky to timely remind everyone it Hicks and Gillete’s fault is very worrying. Surely after due dilligents on the books they should have known what every fan already knew about the club being on the brink.
      To come out now with statements rather than action seems more about buying time. Unfortunately fans are getting restive by the day and they rightly do not trust owners who seem to promise more than deliver. Its a lot easier to blame others over the stadium issue but the new owners have not committed to anything on the stadium issue roughly 4 months short of a year since they took over in October last year. without any plan now it would mean it will be at least a year or 2 before any workl on the stadium if they are to follow their hint of redevelopment given its usually done in the off season so we are now looking at next summer or after. This of cause will not be the case if it is a new stadium..
      The blame game will not get us anywhere, It will help if we all draw a line under the old issues.. The owners should remember fans can be won over by action more than by words.
      The January buys and and Dalglish appointment were positive actions. Now we need more of that and less of the hollow talk that is coming out. Owners usually speak out when all is not well, you hardly hear other team senior management having to speak out unless they West Ham owners and we all know how good they are.

  • wilko says:

    for christ sake, journalists are paid to be critical, your not one, your supposed to be a supporter. Not every signing is going to work out but if we sign a 29 year old his wages are going to be high, if things dont work out and he doesn’t cut it either from lack of desire or just being plain past it you are left with a high earner that can’t be sold because of his age, on the other hand if you buy a young player full of belief desire and ambition on a lower wage and things dont work out he can be moved on quite easily. Please start writing some positive stuff, your not Roy Hodgson are you

  • RedNProud says:

    Another pointless article. It doesn’t matter one jot whether we subscribe to it or not. FSG will do as they see fit and what we think won’t enter into it.

    FSG are a group of highly talented and successful business people. They are also proven winners with great track record in the area of sports and are unlikely to need our advise.

    • Towson Tom says:

      If we can’t talk about and speculate about our club, who the hell can? football is all about opinion and yours is as valid as the next one but what else is there to do in the close season?

      • RedNProud says:

        Tom, I’m all for discussion but articles like this are pointless. Fans spend hours scouring the net looking for the slightest crumb of information about the club and it’s dealings. Most are then discussed to death on the various forums, no problem. The problem arises when fans start question every decision that the FSG makes.

  • Bomber25 says:

    John Henry’s plan is not a great one. He has to sit down with the experts of English and European Football and discuss his plan through with them.

    • cablescavenger says:

      Bomber

      He has sat down with the experts. Commoli is one of the best with a proven track record, and so is Kenny. You or I do not see the wage bills. They do. You or I do not see the effort the players put in during training. You or I do not see what they are technically inept at. They are operating from a more informed decision than you or I could comprehend.

      It is John Henry’s money and he chooses to spend it wisely, and reign in the running costs. That is his right.

      Statistics work. You can effectively measure the value of a player, and Liverpool will not overpay. Do you want another Aquilani? Or would you want to see breakthrough talent with a hunger for the game, and years of progression ahead of them?

      Our previous strategy has left us with difficulty getting rid of players we want to move on,because their wages are too high.

      We have players who didn’t cut it in the premiership, but who looked good in Greece, Sweden, Ukraine and other god awful leagues, again clinging on to their contracts because they are paid too much.

      We have players we overpaid for, who we cannot sell for love nor money, because they are not wanted, and again they are not going to leave under contract because they are paid too much money.

      All of these issues stop the team from being improved upon in the transfer windows.

      Arsenal have employed a similar strategy to this and they are the only premiership club that have made money overall on their signings.

      Personally I understand this to be a sound business strategy.

    • cablescavenger says:

      Some reading material to help understand the strategy:

      http://forums.thisisanfield.com/showthread.php?24721-Damien-Comolli-at-Spurs-A-TPI-Case-Study

  • sq says:

    Yes I believe them. FSG is are miles better than those two snake oil clowns, so far so good. Although it takes a bit of getting used to…since its a very new way of managing a football club, but i have faith. John henry, tom werner, fsg….lets have faith…i trust you guys, youve so far shown great sporting and business sense

  • Kenny says:

    WHEN ARE FANS GOING TO STOP BEING FOOLED BY FSG?THE BIG THING THEY DID AT THE START OF THIS BASEBALL SEASON WAS TO SPEND HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS ON NEW PLAYER CONTRACTS.THEY BORROWED THIS MONEY AND USED LIVERPOOL AS SECURITY FOR THIS DEAL WITH THE BANK.NOTICE WHEN WE SIGNED HENDERSON WITHIN A FEW WEEKS MEIRELES IS SUDDENLY MENTIONED AS A SALE.COST NEUTRAL.NO REAL MONEY IS GOING TO BE SPENT.WE ALL KNOW THIS DEEP DOWN.THE BOSTON RED SOX WILL BE THE ONLY ONES WHO WILL BENEFIT.JOHN HENRY IS A VERY DEVIOUS MAN.AT LEAST HICKS AND GILLETTE WERE BLATANTLY UP FRONT ABOUT USING US.BE WARNED.

    • RedNProud says:

      And the source of your information is….

      • cablescavenger says:

        Of course he is right, why didn’t I think of that? Buy a business and bankrupt it. Genious!

        It appears evolution is not all it is cracked up to be after all.

    • Towson Tom says:

      Just hope it isn’t the real Kenny talking or were in deep ****

  • Jock says:

    The worrying thing is they look to Arsenal for a ‘model’ on how to run the club and what have Arsenal won since Viera last sported their shirt. They have won NOTHING due to a reliance on youth and Wenger’s delusion that his team are Barcelona.

    Do we really want our manager saying ‘this is a young team and in 3 years time we will beat anyone’ for the next ten years?

    On the other hand, lets see what we actually do spend this window. That will certainly tell us a lot about the owners intentions and finances.

  • Martin Badger says:

    Just hand the league to United now. They get on with the job of buying people while we just mess around. Imgaine quibbling over a million – five pence in old money – for Adam while throwing away thirty-five million on Andy C! That’s the sort of business we do in the transfer market. Honestly, we’re a bloody joke and the season ahead will be even worse than the last two because Jamie is now getting really old and the other central defenders are mediocre at best.Gerrard, of course, will get injured right away.

  • Dee says:

    Am not suprised @ some comment some so called fans make. Since some fan asked LFC to give ROY 2 season to build a team despite his blunders.

    If its true we care about long term and not short term and also on players that can be resold @ higher price can someone explain why stewart downing(27) over a younger aguero who came out to say CL football will not be a factor in his decision but a club with good footballing project.

    Finally the owner never talked about british talent just young talents so where is d british stuff coming from?

    • cablescavenger says:

      It is widely reported that Comolli said

      “If a player is English or British or has played in the Premier League we’ll look at that over someone who is abroad.”

      That is not to say, we are only looking at English talent. I interpret it to say we are looking for talent, but if we had to choose between 2 players of similar ilk, and one was English, then the Englishman would get the nod.

  • tim says:

    I’m starting to get embarrased about being a liverpool fan. I remember a couple of years ago people were all over the forums slating man city for spending silly money and buying any player available. Talking about how liverpool would never buy their way to victory, how we’d built dynasty’s rather than abramovich style mega-teams with no soul. And now suddenly the owners are getting abused for not just throwing 100 million away on the first few weeks of the transfer window.

    The european market opens tonight at midnight and hopefully we will look at some options there too before deciding on a way forward – you never know we may even buy mata, turan and others.

    I could understand the worry if every other club was recruiting players at will but so far united have bought a few and we’ve bought henderson. I would be far more worried if I were tottenham or arsenal, fighting to hold onto players rather than worrying about who we might buy.

    And let’s face it as painful as it is Utd are champions again, have champs league football and the most succesful manager currently in management. They have a 76,000 seater stadium and pay more than we do – so you tell me why Young and Jones would choose liverpool over Utd. Unfortunately we have to accept that while clubs like utd are still recruiting and trying to recruit the same players we are, sometimes we’re gonna miss out. However henderson chose us, it looks like adams will too. Hopefully others will follow.

    I’d love to see us able to wrap up deals quickly and with little fuss but unfortunately we aren’t able to do it all behind closed doors anymore – everyone wants to know who liverpool are watching, agents no doubt tell sources who we are after in an attempt to hike up the price, clubs no we’re on a drive and ask for more or taut their players to other clubs. It’s frustrating but that’s the way the transfer markets have become. if we are still scrabling around in a months time with no new players and positions unfilled I will begin to worry but till then surely it makes sense to wait and see – impatience achieves nothing except anger and frustration. Come back in a months time if it’s still the same situation

  • Dan says:

    I think some fans are expecting far too much KD has a three year contract this is how long I expect he will take to get us to number one in the EPL. Rome wasn’t built in a day. Even Man City with all the money they spent and all the big stars they had didn’t manage to get to the top. We gave waited a long time and it’s frustrating, but we just need to wait a little longer and I am sure we’ll get there this time. We now have a stable situation and what looks like a solid back staff. Judge them after the 1st season is over don’t try and second guess them now without any proof or foundation.

  • Dev says:

    Signing young players is good ,but doesn’t mean you should miss on highly experienced PL proven players.

    This year when we don’t have europe ,players like Gael Clichy,Stuart Downing ,Charlie Adam hold key to our success and we shouldn’t miss on signing them.

    Actually it’s a long time since that liverpool have found a owner who has a great passion for football.

  • Lfc4LifeR says:

    It’s a great strategy!!!
    Wenger has given it the thumbs up and fergie must be in and thinking even with the money they can’t get it right! What a joke!

    We will be the new Arsenal and not for the right reasons either…

    When rafa was here we believed we could win the league every yr before the season started and champions league football was a given!

    Its simple…
    With the current team, all we need is a known LB(Cissokho ) and LW(Mata or Turan) and that will be comfortably enough for us to challenge for the league! We already have some of the finest youngsters ready to come through anyway

  • Jay Wright says:

    I think 22/23 is typically the perfect age to buy a player – they’re typically old enough to have fully developed physically and likely gotten at least a couple of seasons of good first team experience to understand how to maximise his contributions, and in all but the most extreme cases will only just be about to hit their peak and so won’t have seen their transfer values maxed out just yet.

    If the player is then a success, you can expect his best service from him for at least 3/5 years, before selling him on for a big fee again if he begins pining for a move/starts to slow down/has a potentially superior player coming along behind him, or just holding onto one of the best players around. On the other hand, if the transfer doesn’t pan out at your club after a couple of years you’d be able to sell the player on for a good fee still, as other clubs would remain convinced that they could tap into the talent that the player showed in his earlier years.

    In contrast, buying players when they’re teenagers means that the player is typically still raw and you have to bare with him while he is still learning the game, consequently not getting the maximum performance from him or your team. You also face the risk that by the time he has finally matured and is reaching his peak years, he’s already been at the club for +4years and may be agitating for a move elsewhere, meaning that all that you’re doing is allowing another club to reap the benefits of your patient work with the player.

    And buying players once they hit 27 or older means that they’re transfer value has already peaked. If the player is a success then great, you can expect a good few years out of him (and it should be easier to anticipate his contribution, but nothing is guaranteed), but if he isn’t a success than a significant loss can be expected.

    That’s just my opinion, and isn’t a rule of thumb though – no ‘moneyball’, just my interpretation of common sense…

  • Lfc4LifeR says:

    Question is do you want to be winning the EPL and celebrating with your girlfriend or with your grand kids.. :/

    Winning trophies is actually quite profitable believe it or not 😉

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