Gerrard’s target would take us to Champions League
STEVEN Gerrard, Liverpool FC captain and veteran of the Champions League qualification has outlined that Liverpool will require 27 points out of 27 if they are to get back into Europe.
Were LFC to maintain a 100% record till the end of the season they would finish with 72 points. So, how would that fare in any other season? Well, only once in the last 10 years has a team finished 4th with more than 72 points. That team was Liverpool in 2008.
On only one other occasion has a team finished 4th with 72 points and that was in 2010.
But with the race for the top 5 positions so tightly contested, how many points will be required to take a place in the Champions League or in the Europa League?
Well, going from my highly unscientific method of guessing how the contenders will do in their remaining fixtures then 72 points would indeed take Liverpool into 4th place and the final berth for the golden ticket of Champions League football.
My prediction for the results of the other clubs in the outstanding matches would leave Chelsea with 69 points, Arsenal with 68 points and Spurs with 75 points (I was tempted to do another table but thought I would spare you all this week)
So 69 points would take that precious 5th spot for Europa League qualification based on my predictions. If you’re happy to accept my point estimates, (which I’m sure you all will) then Liverpool could only lose or draw one of their remaining matches if they are to play in Europe at all next year.
For the sake of humour I will let you all know how Everton get on in my ‘predict the result’ method for the last fixtures. They finish with 55 points which would see me joyfully take a few quid off my brother in our pound a point bet this year.
Using a more statistical approach by averaging the points per game over the remaining fixtures then the Champions League chasing teams end up with these points:
Arsenal 64, Chelsea 70, Spurs 73, Everton 61 (for the record Liverpool would end up with 59 points in this method).
If our rivals did accumulate the above number of points, then if Liverpool drew just one match in the run in then they would play in Europe next season but would have to better Chelsea’s goal tally to get into the Champions League. We would also only be able to drop 8 points in the run in.
However, I would anticipate Liverpool to take more given the teams they have to face and Everton to suffer due to their punishing fixture list.
So what is the likelihood that Liverpool can remain unbeaten and win 9 of the 10 matches remaining? Well, given that we have only won 3 on the trot for the first time in a long time with a win over Spurs then our hopes of hitting Europe are fairly slim. Align to that the fact that we’ve only had 12 wins out of the 29 games we have contested so far and the task seems all the more impossible.
That said we are on our best run since Kenny’s impressive comeback after the Hodgson debacle. So while the eternal optimist in me backs us to take 27 points and scrape into the Champions League, the stark reality is that we almost certainly won’t be playing in Europe next season.
But football is redundant without vain hopes of some form of success so here’s hoping Gerrard’s target and my childlike dream comes true and we have the perfect run in and the perfect ending to the season.
Live4Liverpool is recruiting columnists. For further info contact the site editor at live4liverpool@snack-media.com
Follow us on Twitter here: @live4Liverpool and ‘Like’ us on Facebook
Newcastle News 24/7
March 16th, 2013
bet we loose to saints today! would be typical of the season.
March 16th, 2013
we are beating southertem 3 -0 Suarez sturiege coutihno goals.
March 16th, 2013
Lfcnews…ywnwa
March 16th, 2013
Time will tell I’ll only suggest until end of the season we’re n’t sure if man utd will carry the league also n’t sure abt the top 4 weda chelsea tottenham Arsenal or even liverpool or Everton
March 16th, 2013
18 minutes gone – how sh!t is joe Allen ????.
If we lose , its because of bloody Rodgers picking his lovechild
March 16th, 2013
Thank you Mr. Rodgers. Your ridiculous infatuation with that pathetic imp has cost us any chance of top 4.
When are people going to wake to the fact that – RODGERS IS OUT OF HIS DEPTH !!!!
March 16th, 2013
Rodgers was a gamble by FSG.
March 16th, 2013
a failed gamble . we must cut our losses and move on
March 16th, 2013
@luke Liverpool never had a chance at top 4 they will be lucky to finish in the top 7. Why blame Rodgers when he inherited a crap squad and hasn’t been given the funds to improve it?
Great history but face facts, player for player Liverpool only have one that would get a regular game in a top 4 side.
So top 4 is a pipe dream even european qualification is a stretch.
March 16th, 2013
are u really that stupid ????????
He inherited a class squad that reached 2 major finals full of expensive stars
And he spent over 50m NET – more than Kenny spent NET
Kop on soft lad
March 16th, 2013
Jim must be related to Rodgers or just plain drunk.
March 17th, 2013
LOL. Talkin rubbish jim
March 17th, 2013
Where did that side finish in the league? Who cares about cups? None of the other top sides do which is why a side that was barely top 10 standard was able to get to 2 finals. Name these class players? The only soft lad is you thinking that these weak ass squad is anything better than top 10.
March 17th, 2013
Probably one of the dumbest comments I have ever seen on here .
I mean…lol . Just listen to how stupid you sound- none of the top sides care about the cups
hahaha . Reall
March 17th, 2013
Really really dumb .
March 17th, 2013
WTF ? Your clueless jimmy . Absolutely clueless
March 18th, 2013
The league is the ultimate test of how good a team is. Top clubs prioritise the league then europe then the fa cup then the mickey mouse. The fact that such an average side got to two cup finals says it all. Look at who contested the mickey mouse this year.
If it was all about cups Kenny would still be in a job. The league is ALL important.