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Suarez vs The Best: A Statistical Analysis

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Stoke-v-Liverpool-Liverpool-s-Luis-Suarez-cel_3065488When top strikers go on a prolonged scoring streak, certain people begin to look for flaws. The most obvious way of denigrating a forward’s goal output is to point out that they don’t score as often against the better teams that they face as they do against the rest of their opponents. Liverpool fans used to cite the fact that Cristiano Ronaldo only scored once from open play against them as if that somehow rendered his incredible achievements meaningless. Ronaldo never scored a league goal against Chelsea, either.

Ian Rush took an age to score his first goal against Manchester United and people weren’t shy of reminding him.Critics of Lionel Messi would repeatedly talk about his less favourable record against English clubs. People who don’t want to admit that a forward is truly world class will always use this method to run that player down. It is a last resort.

It resides in the final paragraph on the last page in the big book of footballing denial. It is an argument that is now being used against Luis Suarez, the is the latest player to elevate himself to the realms of the ridiculous when it comes to goal scoring.

Suarez has scored 22 times in 16 league games this season for Liverpool and is smashing records left and right. Lots of people still dislike him (as is their right) and therefore attempt to poke holes in his record. More than a few articles have appeared recently (as well as thousands of social networking posts) claiming that Suarez still has to do more against the top sides before he can be mentioned in the same breath as Ronaldo and Messi (or even Zlatan Ibrahimovic if you are unfortunate enough to be a reader of Adrian Durham’s articles in the Daily Mail).

Stating that top strikers’ goal records dip against better opposition is a facile argument. Of course they do. Playing against better drilled, more skilled defensive opponents generally means less goal scoring opportunities for every striker, no matter how good they are. Messi will always be more likely to score more goals against F.C Basle than he would against Chelsea. Ronaldo will always be more likely to score more goals against FC Shalke 04 than he would against Bayern Munich. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work that out but, for some reason, credence has given to this ridiculous argument.

In light of some of the tripe that I‘ve read recently regarding Suarez’s form against England’s best teams, I decided to do some investigating into just how ‘poor’ Liverpool’s number 7 has been against the better sides in the Premier League since the start of last season. My analysis only begins at the beginning of the 2012/13 season because it was only at that point that Suarez elevated himself to being a world class goal scorer after a previously erratic season and a half for the Reds in front of goal.

In this article I have selected the best 6 teams in England over the last 18 months that Liverpool have faced and analysed Suarez’s performances against them. The teams are, unsurprisingly; Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton and Spurs.

Since the start of the 2012/13 season, Suarez has featured in 16 league games against those 6 opponents. 11 of those appearances have been away from home with just 5 matches taking place at Anfield. In those 16 games, he has netted 10 times. 3 in 5 at Anfield and 7 in the 11 away fixtures. Now let’s look at his record against each of those sides in isolation, starting with the reigning champions:

Manchester United

Suarez played in Liverpool’s 2-1 home defeat to United at Anfield last season but did not score. He also appeared in Liverpool’s defeat of the same scoreline last season at Old Trafford and again, did not score.

2 Games: 0 Goals

Obviously, 0 goals in 2 games is not something for a striker to write home about but this is a very small sample size and both games took place when Liverpool were a far less threatening team than they have been over the last year. They also played the majority of the home match with 10 men after a red card to Jonjo Shelvey.

Manchester City

Suarez has lined up against City 3 times over the same period. He scored in the 2-2 home draw last term but failed to find the net in a 2-2 draw at the Etihad later in the season and just a few weeks ago Liverpool lost 2-1 to the title favourites away from home. Suarez didn’t score.

3 Games: 1 Goal

Again, 1 in 3 isn’t the best record for Suarez to have but he did score against City in the only home match he played against them and he was mightily impressive leading the line on Boxing Day despite Liverpool’s eventual defeat. He created 2 clear cut goal scoring opportunities for Philippe Coutinho and Raheem Sterling that were wasted and he was roundly praised for his performance. His record against City isn’t stellar but it ain’t too shabby either when you look at it in context.

Arsenal

Suarez has played poorly in 2 of the 3 matches he has appeared in against the Gunners over the last 18 months. Liverpool lost the first of those games 2-0 at Anfield and also lost this season by the same scoreline at the Emirates stadium. In that game Suarez hit the post and wasted a one on one chance. He did score away against Arsenal last season in a 2-2 draw, however.

3 Games: 1 Goal

The same record as against City for Suarez but his performances haven’t been as impressive against the North London side.

Chelsea

Suarez was snuffed out of the game at Stamford Bridge a few weeks ago and despite the fact that he should have been awarded a penalty in that match, it was probably his quietest performance of the season to date against an extremely well marshalled Chelsea back line. Having said that, he scored home and away against Chelsea last season, earning Liverpool 2 points and also produced a wonderful assist in the match at Anfield for Daniel Sturridge.

3 Games: 2 Goals

Suarez’s record against Chelsea and his performances in general have been good with the exception of the recent fixture at Stamford Bridge.

Everton

Suarez missed the home derby match at Anfield last season due to suspension. He did play in the fixture at Goodison Park though and scored a brace (which should have been a hat trick but for an errant offside decision in the final minute of the game). He also curled home a wonderful free kick in this season’s derby.

2 Games: 3 Goals

Suarez’s record against Everton has been excellent since he joined Liverpool back in 2011 and in the last 2 seasons he has scored 3 crucial goals away from home. A very good record.

Spurs

Suarez opened the scoring in a 3-2 Liverpool win at Anfield last season and also won the decisive penalty later in the match, converted by Steven Gerrard. This season he tore Tottenham apart at the Lane, scoring twice and assisting three goals as the Reds romped home to a 5-0 victory. He failed to find the net at White Hart Lane in last season’s 2-1 defeat.

3 Games: 3 Goals

A goal a game over the past 2 seasons against Spurs is nothing to be sniffed at and his performance in this year’s match will live long in the memory.

So there we have it. Luis Suarez’s record against the top 6 sides in England over the past season and a half. 16 games, 10 goals at an obvious average of a goal every 1.6 matches. Strikers who can score at better than a goal every other game are at premium in football and, even against the best 6 teams in the country, Suarez is currently scoring at far better than that rate.

If his goal ratio against those teams is more than decent, it is elevated further when we look at his assists in those matches. The penalty he won at home to Spurs, the wonderfully weighted cross for Sturridge against Chelsea, his trio of assists at White Hart Lane not long ago as well as two scruffier assists he was awarded away to Everton and Chelsea this season. That all adds up to 7 goal assists and 10 goals in his 16 games against England’s elite sides.

In those 16 matches, Liverpool scored a total of 27 times, meaning that Suarez has scored or assisted a pretty impressive 63% of the Reds’ goals in those games.

When we go back to just Suarez’s goals though, 10 in 16 obviously falls below his usual standards since the 2012/13 season began. In that time, the striker has netted 45 league goals in 49 games. That averages out to a goal every 1.09 matches. A phenomenal record. To expect him to score at the same rate against top sides like Man City, Arsenal et al is unrealistic (especially when the majority of his games against such stellar sides have come away from home) and if you want to use the fact that his ratio drops to ‘only’ a goal every 1.6 games against the best sides in the country then consider this:

If we extrapolate his ratio of a goal every 1.6 games against these top sides over a 38 game period (the amount of games in a Premier League season), he would still average 23.75 goals in a season. If we round that down to 23 goals (you can’t score 0.75 of a goal, after all), that comes in at just 3 less than last season’s top scorer Robin van Persie managed. Oh, and one further caveat: Luis Suarez doesn’t take penalties. How many pens did van Persie notch last season I hear you ask? Coincidently, 3.

During this ridiculous run of form that Luis Suarez has compiled over the last 18 months or so, he does indeed score less against ‘the big teams’ than he does against the rest of the Premier League. If it comes as a shock to anyone that a world class player scores more goals on average against the likes of Norwich City and West Ham United than he does against Chelsea and Arsenal then I would suggest that they don’t understand football.

The important point here is not that Suarez scores less against Liverpool’s rivals than he does against mid table sides and relegation fodder. Anyone with a brain would assume that. The point is, that for all the besmirching of his record against the elite of the Premier League, Suarez still scores at a more than credible rate.

The Uruguayan is currently just 13 goals away from breaking the Premier League goal scoring record of 34 goals which is jointly held by Alan Shearer and Andy Cole. Both those players amassed their totals in 42 game seasons while the record in the current format of 38 games is held by Cristiano Ronaldo, who scored 31 times in 2007/08. Suarez needs 9 goals in the remaining 17 games to eclipse the Portuguese.

So instead of trying to find minute holes in the record of player who is currently peerless in this country and undoubtedly one of the finest players on the planet, can we all just sit back and enjoy him now?

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