Brendan will have to adapt his tactics after Sunday’s defeat
On Sunday 14th December, Liverpool lost 3-0 to Manchester United using an innovative 3-4-2-1 system. Despite the result, Liverpool played with a fluidity that had been missing all season and under severe pressure Brendan Rodgers showed the belief to stick with the system.
That decision turned the season around as has been widely discussed. From being Liverpool’s worst start to a season in 50 years, the club rose to within 2 points off 4th placed Manchester United.
On Sunday 22nd March, Liverpool lost 2-1 to Manchester United using their standard 3-4-2-1 system. They were 2nd best for most of the 1st half when United dominated possession and Liverpool players couldn’t get near the ball. The personnel were primarily the same that had led the club on a long unbeaten run. Confidence had been high, but in recent games Liverpool had failed to be assertive against Blackburn, Swansea and now United.
All of a sudden Liverpool find themselves 5 points away from a top 4 place, essentially 6 if you take into account goal difference, with a tough final 9 games in which to try to overturn the deficit.
Many fans, understandably devastated after losing a critical game against a hated rival, seem resigned to not getting Champions League football and many others are calling to dump the 3 centre-back system and revert to a back four.
I disagree.
Firstly, it is fair to say top four is now difficult, but it is certainly not impossible. United have to play Man City, Chelsea & Arsenal. They also have potentially tough away games at Everton and Crystal Palace. Regardless of what United do, all Liverpool can do is focus on our fixtures and try to win them all.
So is our present system the right one to accomplish this task?
Well, firstly let’s just remember that we lost by a single goal to a team that, despite mixed form, have spent oodles of cash on World Class players, were already above us in the league and had an extra man for 45 minutes. Despite our poor 1st half, United’s two goals ultimately came because of a young left back making two errors, .
The change in formation in the last United defeat helped turn the season around
Liverpool had 7 shots to Man United’s 6. Liverpool had 42% possession despite playing with a player less for a whole half. And Man United had to make more clearances (28) than Liverpool (21) in defending their goal.
In the 1st half there were definitely tactical issues where Van Gaal’s set up nullified Liverpool. Key to this was that Moreno and Sterling were pinned back and operated primarily as part of a back five, rather than a midfield four. Brendan Rodgers also talked about the defensive line being too deep, meaning the play wasn’t compressed in midfield and Liverpool’s pressing game was unsuccessful.
However, individual poor performances were just as, if not more, responsible. Moreno is a talented young player, but his defensive positioning was at fault even early on in his Liverpool career. His poor passing and lack of concentration during this game made him look like he was simply overawed by the occasion.
Joe Allen has been excellent in recent games, impressing in his defensive diligence and passing, but he was regularly out-muscled during the match, and struggled to deal with the United players dropping in behind him all game. The positional knowledge and increased physicality of Lucas was a big miss.
Emre Can has had an excellent first season in England so far and has quickly become a fan favourite. But he’s had a sloppy few games, and perhaps is in need of a break. Hopefully this international break with his Germany Under 21 team-mates will help him.
Lallana, who was substituted at half time, struggled to affect the game at all and could easily have been subbed during the 1st half. Sterling also struggled, though it must be remembered he is an attacking midfielder not a right back (which is where he was playing given how deep the Liverpool defence were).
However, performances of the likes of Sakho, Mignolet and Skrtel showed that not everyone let the occasion get to them. And the way Liverpool rallied with 10 men to arguably be the better team in the 2nd half showed that the system wasn’t solely at fault.
There are many benefits to the 3-4-3 system that are still benefits now. Defensively it is still secure. It allows more of our young pacey players to be in the side. It can create midfield dominance and plenty of angles for offensive passing.
The issues lie in the players adapting to the opposition counter-systems during the game and tinkering with the composition of the midfield and strikers. Sometimes a diamond in midfield is more effective than a box of two sitting and two Number 10s. Sometimes against deep sitting opponents, the team would benefit more from having 2 strikers and playing 3-4-1-2 instead.
The second defeat of the season to Utd on Sunday showed that Rodgers needs to pick his time to tinker with tactics
Brendan Rodgers has often shown he is willing to change tactics mid-game, let alone from game to game. His challenge is to pick the right time to do it, and pick the right personnel for the formation at hand. He’s been getting it right for most of 2015. He got it wrong versus Man United.
If Liverpool do not get top 4 it will not be because we lost to Man United at Anfield, and it certainly will not be because Steven Gerrard got sent off. It will be because the team and the manager took too long to find the right method to get results prior to Christmas
This is not to say Liverpool should be married to the 3 centre back system. It was a system that got the best out of the available players against unprepared opposition. Opposition are now more familiar with it and have seen how teams like Swansea & United have coped. However, reverting to four at the back may bring back the issues that the team struggled with in the first part of the season when 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3 and 4-4-2 diamond all failed to work. Especially defensively the team was very weak, as it was for much of last season.
But these systems should not be entirely forgotten. The centrebacks are now more confident in themselves and many of the new players have had much of the season to get to know each others’ games. Furthermore the return of players such as Lucas and Flanagan could mean Brendan Rodgers has personnel who are more suited to the systems. Perhaps with injuries to Lallana, Sterling and Sturridge, alongside Skrtel’s impending ban, could force Brendan Rodgers’ hand, like it did when Lovren, Johnsen and Allen lost their places at the start of Liverpool’s strong run.
There is now an international break where Liverpool will hope for no fresh injuries while other players take part in the Charity game organised by Steven Gerrard and Jamie Carragher. This period will give time for everyone to reflect, but with a massive must win game against Arsenal at the Emirates now looming it is perhaps too early to throw the baby out with the bath water and change system.
Either way Brendan Rodgers has some tough decisions ahead.
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