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Are we affected by fibs, statistics and a subjective truth?

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Liverpool AnfieldON the eve of a football match that will be a good marker for how far we have come under Brendan Rodgers (and FSG for that matter), a woman born in Lincolnshire in 1840 and a letter she wrote to the Editor of the (now defunct) National Observer in 1891 become quite poignant.

“Sir, It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a ‘fib,’ the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics…”

We’ve all heard that phrase…

The woman’s name was Eliza Gutch, and she was talking about pensions, not football.

In this ‘bloggy’ age of Twitter, Instagram et al, there is no place to hide. Every #hashtag can be investigated, a footballer’s every movement measured, then tabulated, analyzed, printed and articulated. In the pre-match briefings they are questioned. On the field they are answered.

Emotions, thoughts and numbers engage in constant interplay.

The truth lies somewhere in between, and in this piece I run my subjective eye over a few lies and statistics.

The Fib: Put plainly, it is a fib (albeit an innocent one verging on a downright lie) that we are in any position to put up a sustainable challenge for fourth this season. And to be honest, it is one generated from the minds of us long suffering Liverpool fans who want to see some forward momentum in the league. We are to blame for building up our own expectations.

David James is one such fan, and he recently declared that he thinks we can finish fourth after a visit to Melwood. He cited the acquisition of Coutinho, of Aspas, and the flourishing of Daniel Sturridge. The Brazilian and the Englishman are excellent, and the Spaniard looks like a cheeky latter day Luis Garcia, but the season has 36 more rounds to go, and many injuries in stock, and many a suspension, and the defense does not look particularly deep.

Here’s another fib. Just because we have kept two clean sheets does not mean we will automatically put up a better defensive statistic this season. Mignolet, penalty-save notwithstanding, was not unflappable against either Stoke or Villa. Quite to the contrary, when it came to aerial balls he was rather ‘flappy’, if such a word exists.

But a grain of counterbalancing truth here; I remember watching Reina when he first arrived and for almost a third of the season he struggled with aerial balls – a baptism made worse by acclimatizing to Rafa’s zonal marking system. At least Mignolet’s nervousness seems purely to do with settling into a new defensive setup.

And the lad is bloody lucky. That’s a truth. In his time at Liverpool, Pepe, bless him, always seemed to not get the rub of the green.

Another truth. Kolo Toure has been excellent, and not necessarily because he is technically or physically more gifted than Agger, and the alternative choice of Skrtel. Kolo Toure has been brilliant because he was never the Rolls Royce that Agger is expected to be, and he was never the street-fighter-par-excellence the Slovakian is portrayed as.

Toure has no image to live up to.

Aged 32, he runs without grace, but he runs like a battering ram and with purpose. He has nothing to prove, and he knows this is his swansong, so he has no scouts to impress, no Barcelona to transfer to. This is effectively his final payday, and he’ll be damned if he has to warm the pines!

The Statistics: Statistics are a bewildering business. David Moyes has only won 4 of his 25 matches against Liverpool. The last one was against Roy Hodgson’s 2010 team featuring Kyrgiakos, Joe Cole and Paul Konchesky. 2-0 down, on came David N’Gog, Milan Jovanovic and Ryan Babel.

As it stands, at least two truths can be extracted from the above stats. 1: Liverpool Football Club’s current squad is far more equipped than three years ago and 2, David Moyes is not bringing the likes of Yakubu, Heitinga (who actually turned out to be quite a handy player for them in the end) and a young Seamus Coleman.

He is bringing Manchester United. According to transfermarkt.com, United are valued at €389.25 million, Liverpool: €254 million.

But wait, before we start shouting from the rooftops about investing in our first team squad, figure this into the calculation. Accounting giants Deloitte reckon United are currently £366 million in debt and owe interests and other financial costs of approximately £50 million. Liverpool? £87 million and £4 million respectively.

I quote these numbers because I have seen a lot of people quite concerned about the lack of investment in the first team, and the argument follows thus: if we do not invest, we cannot be in the Champions League, and that would mean us missing out on valuable revenue. We need to jump on the virtuous cycle!

But is the cycle really that virtuous? United’s financial situation is precarious. In debt to the Glazers, they would be under the pump in a word exercising fiscal responsibility. At least our Americans are not leveraging the club’s resources.

And unfortunately, this is a not a world exercising fiscal responsibility.

So, which truth do you want?

And that’s the sobering question I want to end with. Do you want the truth that we are, for all intents and purposes, on safer ground than United, financially? Or the truth that we won’t qualify for the Champions League next season, and maybe the one after?

What about the truth that although we have lost only once in the last 15 games we still haven’t looked ‘consistently’ solid. What about the fact that we have only scored two goals?

Or the truth that all other truths don’t matter, as long as those ninety minutes and that chuck of stoppage time (it is United after all!) means we have put one over on the old enemy.

I don’t know, but I love LFC. For Sunday at least, United can go to hell.

YNWA.
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21 comments

  • Damo says:

    Well done! Well written, thought out and punctuated, unusual for ANY article on the internet! Didn’t even notice the few sentences starting with ‘And’!

  • pretty boy says:

    well written,man utd can go to hell indeed….Go Reds!!!

  • Raam says:

    For the first time in long while, LFC is sitting on top of the table with 9 points and 5 points above MU,at least till the end of the London derby. We won but still playing dangerously with a single goal. Nevertheless, a win is win so, well done Reds.

  • pino pino says:

    we still need yamolenko and damiao,aspas is *weaker than my coutinho. well done “REDS” nice 9 points Y.N.W.A

  • CHUKWUEMEKA says:

    top of the league 9pts, happy we ve got moses cos am worried of aspas not being better than borini, nice game skrtel nd above all welcome home suarez, sahko etal

  • Ozred says:

    Hmmm Nothing fromTommy and nothing from Dennis D… This start must truly be heartbreaking for you two mumbling fools.

    Fancy sitting 2 points clear on top of the table, 5 points ahead of united, beating united, not conceeding a goal, playing excellent football… all with an incompetent manager, ordinary squad, hopeless owners etc etc.

    Another 3 points against the Swans thanks. Clear further ahead of the pack and solidify our rightful place at the top of the table. Who would have thought!

    • Terry says:

      I would like to say I am a life long Liverpool fan, roger hunt was my favourite player, I read all the blogs and am confused, I feel so happy with the way things are going at the moment but when I read some blogs it makes me feel I am missing the truth! Are fsg the real deal or not? Can someone give me a balanced reply!! Thank you!

      • Tommy says:

        No terry. Sadly they are here to make a profit . They are not the answer , the stadium is pie in the sky . Their hopes to build Liverpool into a top club by buying cheap younger players instead of top ones will never work . They care nothing for our city or club .

      • Michael K says:

        @Terry

        FSG couldnt give a flying f about us. A few fans on here think they’re great because we avoided going into administration and picking up a 15 point deduction (which would have meant nothing to our PL status).

        They said they’d wipe out the debt (which they have not),

        It was stated by Broughton that sale of this club was dependant on the new owners dealing with the stadium situation (which they have not….and continue to do very little about)

        The owners themselves rolled up holding books about football history when all they had to do was spend some time here learning off their own fans (they didn’t -they employed an expensive advisory board). They know nothing about this game and choose to invest little / no time here.

        They stated they could compete with anyone financially (we all know they can’t)

        They claimed that their sports management experience could be applied to football (which i think we can all say with some authority hasn’t worked).

        What do they bring to the table….not much. What do they take out of the club……the very soul it was built on to satisfy their desired profit margin.

        FSG have no integrity in my eyes. We’re just a number on a balance sheet to them. We extended them the courtesy of our support for 2 years after the last lot of yanks tried to sink us, and they are doing the same, only in a slightly more polished manner.

        This club will continue to go in reverse / stagnate with them in charge. I wish they’d realise LFC was a bad mistake for them and sell us for a nominal profit to someone who is genuinely interested in restoring LFC as a top football club because at the moment we are anything but.

        P.S the raising of the season tickets by 9% is an absolute disgrace and further proof of their integrity

    • no sheep says:

      Think tommy is liking his wounds. The poor lad got kicked around the place on Saturday evening. Ha ha. You would have loved it.
      Oh and if your listening tommy. I didn’t reply cause I went out with real people. You know the ones. Like you see on tv or that guy that delivers food to your house/work place.

      • Tommy says:

        Little sheep .you didn’t reply because you were making a fool of yourself

        Ozred. Im delighted to be top of league. Sunday was the best day to being a Liverpool fan since Wembley 17 months ago. Rodgers deserves credit for getting the team organized and solid . Lets hope it lasts (but I doubt it)

        I dont think Rodgers is a good manager . But if he gets top 4 and has a good effort at the cups I will change my mind

        • Paul LFC says:

          It wont last . We will struggle to get top 5. Fans are so fickle. Now BR is best manager ever , in a few weeks it will be sack BR . 3 narrow wins does not make him good , I still say he is out of his depth.

          • tommy says:

            Im not fickle paul. I agree with you . Rodgers is not good manager. But if he gets top 4 he has done something right

        • no sheep says:

          Sorry to disappoint ye love but I was out Saturday. one day I’m sure someone will meet you for a drink too if you just believe.

          Sunderlands owner is another one of these Good Samaritans that you believe football is littered with.
          What about southhamtons owner another lad who got the club on the cheap.
          West broms owner another lad who wants rid of his money at any club will do.

          So we have Sunderland,southhamton,west brom,Liverpool,arsenal,villa,united,Cardiff,Newcastle,Fulham,hull and westham. well they have to be in it for the money otherwise why would they buy and then sell Birmingham city?

          So that’s 12 owners that are not fit. Because they are in it to make money.

          How old are you tommy?

          Is the reason you have a go at everyone that has a different opinion then you cause you are scouse and you know what is best for the club? So if someone says something about you that isn’t true you will put them right? Yes like most scousers would.

          • tommy says:

            You lack of knowledge is amazing

            Do you have clue about anything ? Marcus liebherr bought Southampton ( try learning to spell ) , he is a billionaire , he just wanted an interest, he died , he made a request that his inheriting family carried on the care of the club

            F u ck . You really are dumb , yes ?

            It’s like trying to educate a lamp post. Look things up before , and you wouldn’t appear so stupid

            I told you Westham owners are boyhood fans , which is why they bought the club

            Kop on really. Try and get SOMETHING right

          • StevieG says:

            No sheep ….I have never seen a more ignorant fool on the internet than you . A total mong

  • paul says:

    brandan r is super special.carra was benched n come smart.raina out is great step up coz 8 point could have gone!(callol,down2 assist 50 game oh no/sturidge .coutiho is success

  • Terry says:

    Thanks tommy, can you give me an example of a premiere league club who are doing it the right way and that we should follow there example?

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