Would Arsenal Defeat End Top Four Chase?

Brendan Rodgers demonstrated this week how Swansea City remain in his thoughts following the sacking of Michael Laudrup – but it is his current club Liverpool that need all his attention.

Their 1-1 draw with West Brom was extremely disappointing. It looked like we were going back to the start of the season, with a 1-0 win through a Daniel Sturridge goal.

Yet the mother of all howlers was committed by Kolo Toure and West Brom capitalised and held on for a point. West Brom never really looked like scoring in the entire match and they should have been put to bed before Victor Anichebe’s goal.

Luis Suarez missed a golden chance, but he is human and will miss now and again. Ultimately, Liverpool were quite sluggish, clearly not at their best and didn’t take advantage of the golden chance presented to them from the weekend’s results. If they had just been 5% better, then they would be still in with a chance of the title given Chelsea’s win and huge favourites for a top four spot, whilst taking hated rivals Manchester United out of the equation at the same time.

However, that is just a ‘what if’ moment – one of many Liverpool fans have had to endure over the last two decades when it comes to the Premier League. Nevertheless, Rodgers’ men have to dust themselves down and focus on the next game in hand.

And it is a big one.

Arsenal travel to Anfield seeking a league double over Liverpool in their quest to maintain their title challenge, yet this game is more important for the Reds than the Gunners.

Yes Arsenal will want to keep their momentum going and send out a message, just as Chelsea did with their win at the Etihad. However, losing at Anfield would not be the end of the world; they would still be right in the title mix. Furthermore, on the occasions that they have lost or dropped points, they have shown a great ability to silence the doubters and bounce back.

For Liverpool, a loss here would rip out all the momentum gained from the fantastic Merseyside derby victory. It has been slowly eroding away with the poor January transfer window and West Brom draw, but losing to Arsenal would sap all confidence away in what is a crucial time in the race for fourth.

Moreover, it is another opportunity to put some distance between at least one of their top four rivals, with Everton meeting Tottenham at White Hart Lane. Missing out on another opportunity could be too much for the young squad at Anfield, who have not finished in the top four since 2009.

A win would ensure Liverpool sent out their own message to the other big clubs yet to come to Anfield, that they await the same fate. A loss would culminate in the exact opposite, with the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City feeling confident about taking maximum points away from Anfield.

Therefore, it could start a chain reaction of home losses through reduced confidence on the red side and sky-high confidence from the opponents, which would then mount up and arguably prove costly in the race for fourth. These games may be at home, but signs of weakness will be exploited by the best the Premier League has to offer.

Which makes the team selection crucial for Rodgers on Saturday. The defence has not been at its strongest in recent weeks, with the 3 goals conceded at Stoke City and falling 2-0 down to Aston Villa at Anfield being proof of this. Therefore, there needs to be greater protection for that back four, especially with the quality in Arsenal’s midfield; Liverpool cannot afford to be a man short in that department.

Therefore, Steven Gerrard and Jordan Henderson have to stay fairly deep, and if Coutinho plays, he will need to remain in the centre of the park, albeit slightly further ahead than the other two. Joe Allen could be a viable alternative for one of Raheem Sterling or Coutinho to solidify the midfield, under the assumption that Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suarez will surely start.

One of SAS will have to track back and help the full backs defend against the likes of Kieran Gibbs, although hopefully it will be the other way round if Liverpool keep Arsenal pressed inside their own half, allowing Aly Cissokho and Jon Flanagan the opportunity to roam forward – particularly for Cissokho, who does seem to perform better when attacking.

If Rodgers sticks with the four of Coutinho, Sterling and SAS, then Liverpool will have to work hard and help the two man midfield of Gerrard and Henderson from being over-run, as well as tracking back.

Yet if they can, the counter-attacking potential will be at its peak, which could be a vital asset with the weakness of Per Mertesacker being pace and Laurent Koscielny being rash challenges from poor positioning in quick situations.

Even if Liverpool lose on Saturday, they would still remain favourites to claim fourth. They will have to demonstrate a serious ability to bounce back if they go two games without a win, putting their mental capacity to the test – do they really believe they can get fourth?

They do have the quality, they do have the experience in Steven Gerrard, Daniel Agger, Martin Skrtel and Lucas Leiva and with the likes of Suarez and the majority of their home form, they should have the belief.