Liverpool striker Roberto Firmino is the worst finisher across Europe’s major leagues – or so a report on expected goals (xG) may try to have you believe.
A report from Football Critic on players with under-performing xG statistics across Europe’s top five leagues found that the 28-year-old had the biggest discrepancy between his domestic goal tally and the amount of goals he should have scored, based on the xG model.
As per Opta, xG “measures the quality of a shot based on several variables such as assist type, shot angle and distance from goal, whether it was a headed shot and whether it was defined as a big chance”, which in turn produces “an indication of how many goals a player or team should have scored on average, given the shots they have taken”.
Firmino has scored eight Premier League goals for Liverpool so far this season but, according to the data from Football Critic, he has an xG figure of 15.5 in the division, his negative discrepancy of 7.5 goals the highest in the continent’s top leagues.
It is fair to state that the Brazilian has not had his most potent season in a Liverpool shirt. He needs two more goals in the 2019/20 Premier League (if it resumes) to stave off his lowest tally in five years playing in the division, with his eight-goal haul coming in 2,422 minutes of league action (one goal per 302.75 minutes). Contrast that with last season, when he scored 12 times in 2,620 league minutes (one goal per 218.33 minutes), or his tally of 15 league goals in 2,778 minutes in 2017/28 (one goal per 185.2 minutes).
Firmino has 11 goals in 3,339 minutes in all competitions this season, averaging one goal every 303.54 minutes. Considering that he is the first choice centre-forward for the reigning Champions League winners and runaway Premier League leaders, you might expect that strike rate to be better. Indeed, Divock Origi and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, neither of whom are consistent starters, have better scoring averages than Firmino in 2019/20. The Belgian striker has hit five goals in 1,239 minutes (one goal per 247.8 minutes) while the ex-Arsenal midfielder has scored seven times in 1,813 minutes (one goal per 259 minutes).
However, just because Firmino’s goal tally is comparatively underwhelming does not mean that he has been poor this season. As noted by Liverpool Echo, he is more of a deep-lying centre-forward than a static penalty box predator and his contribution to the Reds’ team play is highlighted by his assists tally of 12, the joint-second highest in Jurgen Klopp’s squad.
Also, the Brazilian has had a happy tendency to make his goals count big and pops up at just the right moments for Liverpool. Five of his eight league Premier League strikes this season came in one-goal victories, including late winners at Crystal Palace and Wolves and the decider away to Tottenham (as per TransferMarkt). He also conjured match-winning goals in both of the Reds’ games in their Club World Cup triumph, scoring in stoppage time against Monterrey despite only being on the pitch for five minutes.
Indeed, Firmino has probably been unlucky not to have a higher goals tally in 2019/20. Football Critic pointed out that he struck the post in games against Norwich and Bournemouth, as well as arguing that a negative discrepancy between goals scored and xG isn’t strictly a sign of a bad finisher but highlights that a player gets themselves into good scoring positions.
If Firmino continues to do so, perhaps his scoring figures will better reflect his overall contribution to the team. One thing is for sure – whenever he has scored this season, he has often done so at a time when Liverpool hugely needed it, so don’t let his xG discrepancy dupe you into thinking he is a poor striker.
Liverpool fans, just how vital do you think Firmino is to the Reds? Do you think he should score more given his role in the team? Comment below with your views!
