Liverpool’s race for Champions League qualification has become one of the key talking points of the final stretch of the season, with Bournemouth emerging as a surprise contender for European football under Andoni Iraola.
According to Opta’s supercomputer projections, there is still a significant gap between the two clubs when it comes to their chances of securing a place in next season’s Champions League, even though Bournemouth have enjoyed a strong run of form in the closing stages of the campaign.
Despite inconsistency at various points of the season, Liverpool remain overwhelming favourites to secure Champions League qualification.
Opta’s model gives the Reds a 97.29% chance of finishing in the top four or securing a Champions League place, reflecting their strong underlying position in the table and superior squad depth compared to their rivals.
17 – Liverpool have conceded 17 goals from set-piece situations (excl. penalties) in the Premier League this season – now their most ever in a single campaign in the competition, overtaking 16 in 1992-93. Seized. pic.twitter.com/RD24Uy72Cr
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) May 3, 2026
That figure suggests that even with pressure from behind, Arne Slot’s side are still expected to get the job done across the remaining fixtures.
Liverpool’s experience in high-pressure run-ins, combined with their attacking quality, continues to weigh heavily in statistical projections.
Bournemouth’s surprise push for Europe
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have enjoyed one of their strongest Premier League campaigns in recent memory, pushing themselves into the conversation for European qualification.
However, Opta still view their chances of reaching the Champions League as extremely slim, with their probability rated at just 1.22%.
While the Cherries have impressed with their structure, intensity, and results against several top-half sides, the data suggests they would need an exceptional finish and results elsewhere to bridge the gap to the top four.
Their focus, more realistically, is likely to remain on securing a strong European finish in other competitions, depending on final league positioning.
The contrast between Liverpool and Bournemouth in the Opta model highlights the difference in squad depth, European experience, and consistency over a full season.
Liverpool’s squad, even during a transitional phase under Arne Slot, still contains multiple players who have previously competed at the highest level in both domestic and European competitions.
Bournemouth’s rise, while impressive, is still relatively recent in terms of competing consistently at the top end of the Premier League table.
